Disasters and climate change are a growing driver of displacement worldwide, as more frequent and severe hazards such as floods, storms, and droughts make people move, often within their own countries. Quantifying displacement risk in a changing climate is essential for resilience building and humanitarian planning.

The Global Displacement Risk Model applies an integrated modelling approach to project future internal displacement in a changing climate. A key innovation of the model is its mainstreamed multi-hazard framework, which enables a consistent assessment of displacement risk across different hazard types, based on the concept of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. The model integrates socioeconomic vulnerability alongside hazard intensity and exposure, enabling the model to capture how underlying social and economic conditions influence displacement outcomes.

Developed using the CLIMADA modelling platform and other risk and hazard models such as the CIMA flood model, the results estimate displacement risk across multiple hazards, including floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, storm surges, and earthquakes, under different climate change scenarios. Key model outputs include Annual Average Displacement (AAD) and Probable Maximum Displacement (PMD) for different hazard types under “optimistic” and “pessimistic” climate scenarios. The results are presented through an interactive dashboard that allows users to explore displacement risk across hazards and climate scenarios, including sub-national results for all countries. The dashboard is available here.