Somalia is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, facing the compounded risks of political fragility, socio-economic instability, and a geography prone to climate extremes. Over 80% of its landmass comprises arid and semi-arid zones, where livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and livestock. Between 2000–2021, climate-related losses totaled USD 2.84 billion, severely impacting livelihoods and hindering sustainable development. The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events have severely disrupted essential services, including water supply, health systems, and energy infrastructure, exacerbating food and water insecurity, displacing communities, and undermining long-term development. In response to these escalating climate challenges, the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), through its Local Climate Adaptive Living Facility (LoCAL), has collaborated with the United Nations University – Institute of Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) to implement “National Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Decision Making in Somalia,” a forward-looking effort to build the analytical foundation for climate adaptation in Somalia.

This analysis is a collaborative effort aimed at quantitatively assessing Somalia’s current and projected climate risks, with particular attention to climate hazards such as floods and droughts. The analysis evaluates the impacts of climate change in Somalia using the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework and the CLIMADA modeling platform. The ECA framework supports a structured approach to understanding the potential impacts of climate hazards and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. Through this approach, the study aims to answer critical questions about the current and future impacts of climate change in Somalia and to identify practical, high-impact measures that can reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience. Together with the CLIMADA modeling tool, ECA enables the quantification of current and projected climate risks and cost-benefit analyses of potential adaptation measures. The study is further complemented by targeted capacity-building efforts to ensure local ownership and sustainability. Training sessions covering climate risk analytics and the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework, CLIMADA, Climate and Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance will be delivered to Somali stakeholders, including government officials, academic institutions, private sectors, and development partners.

The study aims to develop evidence-based adaptation strategies through close collaboration with local experts, academia, and government stakeholders, highlighting the importance of collective action in addressing climate change. By grounding comprehensive climate risk assessments with robust stakeholder engagement, the study supports the Somali government and its partners in adopting more strategic, data-driven responses to climate risks, reinforcing their essential role in shaping practical, long-term adaptation efforts.